The non-stop hype, The Weather Channel is very notorious for it. Jim Cantore and his colleagues treat weak storms as "monsters" and that creates a cry wolf syndrome to some degree. I remember back when The Weather Channel, John Hope was the hurricane specialist, didn't hype any storm, all he gave was the facts. Only facts with hurricanes need to be given, without any hype. And yes, with so much emphasis on the Tampa Bay area (just like with Charley in 2004), the counties of Charlotte, Lee and Collier, don't pay as much attention.
The cone tracks a single point, that’s it. If a point was what people had to prepare for then the cone worked pretty well, because that point stayed within the cone. But people in this case should have been preparing for a major hurricane, which is much larger than a point. The cone has had 20 years of explanations about “hazards extend outside of the cone” and yet it remains misunderstood by most. Why not use a graphic that is intuitively obvious and doesn’t require a disclaimer at the top of the NHC graphic? A disclaimer which is absent on TV and app graphics.
It seems there was too much emphasis on a Tampa Bay hit; that could be why the leaders in lee County waited too long. The other counties were smart; they did the early evacuation orders; they didn't pay too much attention to this Tampa Bay or Panhandle possibility. Yes, there's too much local media hype. Sometimes, what they emphasize can be totally wrong, and they can be slow to realize it, till it's too late. One way to pay attention better is if a hurricane gets into radar range, let the radars and the satellites take you where the storm is ACTUALLY GOING. Once you see the storm taking a beeline for a certain place, and it appears to be coming to YOUR area, don't waste time at home, or relying on old model tracks or hype. Do what you need to do, and EVACUATE. If the storm changes, and your area is spared, so what? Better to be safe than sorry. If your area DOES get hit, you will be lucky you didn't stay, and you should praise the hurricane center and NWS for their warnings and forecasts. Sometimes they get it wrong; a lot of times they get it RIGHT. Unfortunately, they have been "getting very good at this" in recent years. If they are indeed "getting very good at this" that is YOUR cue to pay attention. Ignore the hype. If you are told to evacuate, please do so, even if it turns out to be wrong later. Run from the wind, hide from the water!!
The non-stop hype, The Weather Channel is very notorious for it. Jim Cantore and his colleagues treat weak storms as "monsters" and that creates a cry wolf syndrome to some degree. I remember back when The Weather Channel, John Hope was the hurricane specialist, didn't hype any storm, all he gave was the facts. Only facts with hurricanes need to be given, without any hype. And yes, with so much emphasis on the Tampa Bay area (just like with Charley in 2004), the counties of Charlotte, Lee and Collier, don't pay as much attention.
The cone tracks a single point, that’s it. If a point was what people had to prepare for then the cone worked pretty well, because that point stayed within the cone. But people in this case should have been preparing for a major hurricane, which is much larger than a point. The cone has had 20 years of explanations about “hazards extend outside of the cone” and yet it remains misunderstood by most. Why not use a graphic that is intuitively obvious and doesn’t require a disclaimer at the top of the NHC graphic? A disclaimer which is absent on TV and app graphics.
It seems there was too much emphasis on a Tampa Bay hit; that could be why the leaders in lee County waited too long. The other counties were smart; they did the early evacuation orders; they didn't pay too much attention to this Tampa Bay or Panhandle possibility. Yes, there's too much local media hype. Sometimes, what they emphasize can be totally wrong, and they can be slow to realize it, till it's too late. One way to pay attention better is if a hurricane gets into radar range, let the radars and the satellites take you where the storm is ACTUALLY GOING. Once you see the storm taking a beeline for a certain place, and it appears to be coming to YOUR area, don't waste time at home, or relying on old model tracks or hype. Do what you need to do, and EVACUATE. If the storm changes, and your area is spared, so what? Better to be safe than sorry. If your area DOES get hit, you will be lucky you didn't stay, and you should praise the hurricane center and NWS for their warnings and forecasts. Sometimes they get it wrong; a lot of times they get it RIGHT. Unfortunately, they have been "getting very good at this" in recent years. If they are indeed "getting very good at this" that is YOUR cue to pay attention. Ignore the hype. If you are told to evacuate, please do so, even if it turns out to be wrong later. Run from the wind, hide from the water!!