Hurricane Ian; Over 100 Deaths. What Went Wrong?

Messaging During Life Threatening Weather Events Is Getting Very Messy

As of this writing on October 4, 2022, the U.S. death toll from Hurricane Ian is 105. In Florida, 101 lost their life, and four others were killed in North Carolina.

Is this the deadliest hurricane in Florida history? No. Not even close. The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane was responsible for 1,836 deaths based on official records, but some believe the death toll was closer to 3,000. The Atlantic-Gulf Hurricane in 1919 had a death toll was estimated at 600 to 900.

The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was responsible for over 400 deaths in Florida, and the Greater Miami Hurricane of 1926 killed over 300 people.

But there were no hurricane warnings in those days; the big question is why was the death toll so high with Ian despite our current hurricane watch/warning system? It is a debate that will likely go on for years. We had a great discussion on this very issue last night on WeatherBrains.

I somehow lost my voice yesterday, and wasn’t able to participate in the show, so I thought I would jot down a few thoughts as we all ponder what happened and where we need to go.

NHC: The meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are the best of the best. Our Army Rangers, our Navy Seals. Their initial forecast when Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Caribbean on Friday September 23 was remarkably accurate; the five day forecast suggested a landfall near Sanibel/Fort Myers Beach on September 28. The intensity forecast was off, but still for a five day forecast it was eerily good.

Unfortunately the forecast was adjusted in a big way to the west by Sunday September 25, suggesting a landfall south of Tallahassee in the far eastern part of the panhandle Thursday night September 29. This was mostly in response to the American GFS global model and it’s ensemble output.

The GFS didn’t handle short wave energy well around Alaska and western Canada, that would ultimate form the trough that pulled Ian to the northeast into Southwest Florida. It really didn’t see it until extra radiosonde launches were initiated by NWS offices in various parts of the U.S.

The next day, Monday September 26, the forecast was adjusted again (this time to the east), showing a weakening (but still dangerous) hurricane headed for Tampa Bay.

And, the last big adjustment was made the night of September 27, showing a powerful hurricane making landfall around Sanibel the next day.

Could this forecast cone hokey pokey be one reason for confusion and the lack of response? We will find out later when social science studies are done.

I always say that when it comes to tropical systems, if you are working with old information, you are working with bad information. Perhaps some in SW Florida saw the landfall forecast from September 25 (aimed at the eastern Panhandle), breathed a sigh of relief, and just stopped watching for updates.

NON STOP HYPE: Seems that with national media, just about every weather system these days is a “monster storm” with “millions in the path” that is “unprecedented”. If we use that kind of hyperbolic language for rather routine events, will people actually pay attention where there IS a monster storm with millions in the path? Mainstream media outlets really need to think about this. Sure, high impact weather events bring in viewers, but when you manufacture an extreme event that really isn’t extreme, you become the little boy crying wolf. And at some point people will figure out that they are being duped and will stop watching.

WEATHER ENTERTAINERS: There is no doubt that many now don’t get their weather information from the National Hurricane Center, or any professional meteorologist. They turn to the countless number of “weather entertainers” found across platforms like TikTok and YouTube. These people are smart; they have learned how to play the algorithms using fear to bring in huge number of views to their videos, which in turn begins in some very generous sums of money.

They develop a very large group of very loyal followers with an almost religious type zeal. For those followers, the entertainers can do no wrong, and can never be wrong. They get their high impact weather forecasts and evacuation advice here, from people with no formal training in meteorology.

The same thing has really happened with journalists; now most people tune in to their favorite “news entertainers” on cable news channels at night based on their political worldview. Seems more and more like people don’t want to hear from journalists, or meteorologists. The entertainers are taking over with gobs of misinformation, which can be dangerous in life threatening weather.

Understand some of the entertainers do a good job, and not all are in it for malicious intent and influencer cash. But, TikTok and YouTube can be an ocean of ignorance when it comes to reliable hurricane information. Between the hyperbole on mainstream media and met frauds on social media, I’m amazed more people didn’t go *into* the evacuation zone.

THE CONE: Do we need to change NHC graphics? Do people understand the cone? Are we focusing too much on the “center line”? Here is the NHC cone definition:

“The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2022 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, and Central North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.”

Using that last sentence, we also must remember that a tropical cyclone could be out of the cone 30-40% of the time.

No doubt we have to be better at communicating uncertainty. I have said it before, and I will say it again, humility is missing in our science. We don’t always get it right. There will be changes and adjustments in the forecast track of tropical cyclones, even 12 hours before landfall.

In the case of Ian, NHC issued warnings *outside* of the cone to the south knowing that there was a possible southern shift.  Watches were issued almost 4 days in advance and warnings went up 48 hours in advance, which is 12 hours more than the definition calls for.  Surge warnings went up at those same times, and included the *entire* coastline of Monroe county.  Rainfall forecasts for 10-20” crossed the entire state. Did people pay attention?

We really won’t have answers for months; the first priority is to take care of the people suffering in Florida, and then we can do studies and look for answers. We all have to get better, and I am hoping Hurricane Ian is an opportunity to do just that. The way people consume weather information continues to change like a meteor streaking through the night. I do believe there is still a hunger for reliable, no-nonsense weather information from professional meteorologists. We just have to present this information across platforms people use, and in a way they can understand.

We should never, ever produce products and services based on what the weather community wants, but what the people want that we serve.